Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kaluga · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kaluga 1-0 FC UFA
Original prediction
Kaluga
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.52 | 20.3% | 40.4% | 20.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 27.1% | 27.7% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 1.74 | 52.6% | 31.9% | -20.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 3.52 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
20.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
Kaluga
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Kaluga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KalugaDDWLD
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
FC UFADWWDL
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
KalugaFC UFA
100.0Attack8.3
83.3Defence83.3
100.0Form25.0
91.8Power42.1
1.53xG0.79