Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kalsdorf · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kalsdorf 1-1 Weiz
Original prediction
Kalsdorf
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 56.9% | 50.2% | -6.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.16 | 21.8% | 24.1% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 4.24 | 21.3% | 25.7% | 4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.16 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Kalsdorf
Probability
50.2%
Model confidence
50.2%
Kalsdorf has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KalsdorfWWWWL
GF 11 · GA 11 · avg 2.20/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
WeizDWLDW
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
KalsdorfWeiz
88.9Attack55.6
66.7Defence77.8
100.0Form44.4
87.0Power56.8
1.98xG1.23