Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Grazer AK · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kalsdorf 1-5 Grazer AK
Original prediction
Grazer AK
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 September 2026 at 09:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 14.09 | 6.4% | 22.9% | 16.4 pts |
| Draw | 7.77 | 11.7% | 23.7% | 12.1 pts |
| Away | 1.11 | 81.9% | 53.4% | -28.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-28.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Grazer AK
Probability
53.4%
Model confidence
53.4%
Grazer AK has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KalsdorfWLWDD
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Grazer AKDWWDL
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
KalsdorfGrazer AK
29.2Attack100.0
75.0Defence50.0
50.0Form69.0
54.5Power69.4
1.07xG1.75