Kaliszvs
Polonia Środa
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 2 · 10/24/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Polonia Środa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kalisz 0-0 Polonia Środa
Original prediction
Polonia Środa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.56 | 25.3% | 36.5% | 11.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.79 | 23.8% | 25.5% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 1.78 | 50.8% | 38.0% | -12.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.79 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Polonia Środa
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Polonia Środa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80