Kaliszvs
Lech Poznań II
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 2 · 10/10/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kalisz · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kalisz 2-4 Lech Poznań II
Original prediction
Kalisz
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 8 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 40.2% | 37.2% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 26.0% | 26.3% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.67 | 33.8% | 36.5% | 2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Kalisz
Probability
37.2%
Model confidence
37.2%
Kalisz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60