Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kalamata · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kalamata 3-1 Volos NFC
Original prediction
Kalamata
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.46 | 37.7% | 37.0% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.11 | 29.9% | 28.4% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.87 | 32.4% | 34.6% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.46 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Kalamata
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
37.0%
Kalamata has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KalamataDDLLW
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Volos NFCLDDDL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
KalamataVolos NFC
33.3Attack22.2
33.3Defence55.6
11.1Form22.2
29.5Power36.4
1.27xG1.23