Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kalamata · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kalamata 4-3 OFI
Original prediction
Kalamata
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.64 | 35.2% | 36.9% | 1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.16 | 29.4% | 27.3% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.63 | 35.3% | 35.8% | 0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.64 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Kalamata
Probability
36.9%
Model confidence
36.9%
Kalamata has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KalamataWLDWD
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
OFILLDWW
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
KalamataOFI
50.0Attack44.4
50.0Defence61.1
38.9Form55.6
47.5Power55.1
1.28xG1.25