Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kalamata · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kalamata 1-1 Larisa
Original prediction
Kalamata
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.54 | 58.9% | 44.7% | -14.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 24.6% | 25.3% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 5.51 | 16.5% | 30.0% | 13.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.69 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Kalamata
Probability
44.7%
Model confidence
44.7%
Kalamata has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KalamataWDDLL
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
LarisaWDLWW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
KalamataLarisa
100.0Attack77.8
33.3Defence44.4
66.7Form66.7
68.0Power60.4
1.91xG1.68