Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ordabasy · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Kaisar 0-1 Ordabasy, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Kaisar 1-4 Ordabasy
Original prediction
Ordabasy
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.57 | 16.3% | 14.0% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.08 | 22.3% | 23.2% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 1.48 | 61.5% | 62.8% | 1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.48 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.4 pts
Projected Score
Kaisar 0–1 Ordabasy
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Ordabasy
Probability
62.8%
Model confidence
62.8%
Ordabasy has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KaisarDWLLL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
OrdabasyWWLWW
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
KaisarOrdabasy
28.2Attack65.4
57.7Defence76.9
30.8Form78.2
41.8Power74.3
0.41xG1.67