Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Kaisar 0-0 Atyrau, with an exact score probability of 30%.
Prediction record
Final result
Kaisar 1-0 Atyrau
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 40.1% | 33.7% | -6.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.08 | 29.3% | 33.9% | 4.6 pts |
| Away | 2.95 | 30.6% | 32.4% | 1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.6 pts
Projected Score
Kaisar 0–0 Atyrau
Exact score probability: 30%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
33.9%
Model confidence
33.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KaisarLLLLL
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AtyrauWLLDD
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
KaisarAtyrau
27.8Attack26.1
55.6Defence65.2
27.8Form33.3
39.9Power44.2
0.61xG0.64