Kairat Almatyvs
Panathinaikos
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa Conference League · 10/22/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Panathinaikos · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kairat Almaty 1-5 Panathinaikos
Original prediction
Panathinaikos
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 22 September 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.19 | 18.1% | 28.3% | 10.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.93 | 23.9% | 26.6% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 1.62 | 58.0% | 45.1% | -12.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.62 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Panathinaikos
Probability
45.1%
Model confidence
45.1%
Panathinaikos has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60