Kairat Almatyvs
FK Tobol Kostanay
COMPLETEDKazakhstan · Premier League · 9/13/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kairat Almaty · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Kairat Almaty 2-0 FK Tobol Kostanay, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Kairat Almaty 1-4 FK Tobol Kostanay
Original prediction
Kairat Almaty
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.40 | 64.4% | 64.0% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.23 | 21.3% | 21.2% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 6.32 | 14.3% | 14.8% | 0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.4 pts
Projected Score
Kairat Almaty 2–0 FK Tobol Kostanay
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Kairat Almaty
Probability
64.0%
Model confidence
64.0%
Kairat Almaty has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20