Kagoshima Unitedvs
Tochigi SC
COMPLETEDJapan · J3 League · 9/19/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kagoshima United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kagoshima United 3-1 Tochigi SC
Original prediction
Kagoshima United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.85 | 48.5% | 54.9% | 6.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 27.3% | 23.7% | -3.6 pts |
| Away | 3.70 | 24.2% | 21.5% | -2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.85 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Kagoshima United
Probability
54.9%
Model confidence
54.9%
Kagoshima United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80