Kagoshima Unitedvs
Fukushima United
COMPLETEDJapan · J3 League · 10/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kagoshima United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 3-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kagoshima United 3-2 Fukushima United
Original prediction
Kagoshima United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.33 | 67.7% | 58.4% | -9.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.78 | 18.9% | 22.0% | 3.1 pts |
| Away | 6.77 | 13.4% | 19.7% | 6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.3–08%
Predicted outcome
Kagoshima United
Probability
58.4%
Model confidence
58.4%
Kagoshima United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 10 · GA 19 · avg 2.00/3.80