Kagera Sugarvs
Fountain Gate
COMPLETEDTanzania · Ligi kuu Bara · 9/13/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kagera Sugar · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kagera Sugar 1-1 Fountain Gate
Original prediction
Kagera Sugar
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 45.0% | 37.3% | -7.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.04 | 29.6% | 28.6% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 3.54 | 25.4% | 34.1% | 8.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.04 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Kagera Sugar
Probability
37.3%
Model confidence
37.3%
Kagera Sugar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60
GF 1 · GA 8 · avg 0.20/1.60