Kagera Sugarvs
Azam
COMPLETEDTanzania · Ligi kuu Bara · 8/31/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Azam · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (10%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kagera Sugar 0-2 Azam
Original prediction
Azam
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.75 | 15.7% | 22.6% | 6.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.70 | 24.3% | 25.1% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 1.50 | 60.0% | 52.3% | -7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.50 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Azam
Probability
52.3%
Model confidence
52.3%
Azam has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Kagera SugarLLDLL
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
AzamDWWDW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Kagera SugarAzam
33.3Attack58.3
8.3Defence58.3
8.3Form66.7
20.8Power64.8
0.99xG1.75