Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Juventus · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Juventus 2-2 Rennes
Original prediction
Juventus
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 06:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.45 | 65.6% | 51.0% | -14.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.68 | 20.3% | 25.1% | 4.8 pts |
| Away | 6.74 | 14.1% | 23.8% | 9.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.68 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Juventus
Probability
51.0%
Model confidence
51.0%
Juventus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JuventusLWDLW
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
RennesLWWLL
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
JuventusRennes
100.0Attack33.3
83.3Defence83.3
100.0Form66.7
91.8Power64.8
1.70xG1.02