Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Juventus · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Juventus 0-3 Lazio
Original prediction
Juventus
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.62 | 58.9% | 39.7% | -19.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.95 | 24.1% | 27.3% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 5.57 | 17.1% | 33.0% | 15.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Juventus
Probability
39.7%
Model confidence
39.7%
Juventus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JuventusWDLWW
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
LazioWDWWD
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
JuventusLazio
50.0Attack61.1
72.2Defence77.8
61.1Form88.9
62.8Power78.9
1.02xG1.13