Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Juventud are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Cienciano are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWD), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Cienciano hold a 2.7-point power-rating edge (51.5 v 54.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 34.0% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 34% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 43% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
34.0%
Model confidence
34.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00