Juventud Unidavs
Mercedes
COMPLETEDArgentina · Primera C · 8/30/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Juventud Unida 0-0 Mercedes, with an exact score probability of 33%.
Prediction record
Final result
Juventud Unida 4-1 Mercedes
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 40.4% | 32.1% | -8.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.77 | 32.5% | 36.8% | 4.3 pts |
| Away | 3.31 | 27.2% | 31.1% | 3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.3 pts
Projected Score
Juventud Unida 0–0 Mercedes
Exact score probability: 33%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
36.8%
Model confidence
36.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Juventud UnidaWLWDW
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
MercedesWLLDW
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
Juventud UnidaMercedes
37.3Attack33.3
68.0Defence80.0
46.7Form48.0
52.4Power54.4
0.55xG0.59