Juventud Torremolinosvs
Zaragoza
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · 9/13/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Zaragoza · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Juventud Torremolinos 3-4 Zaragoza
Original prediction
Zaragoza
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.05 | 29.7% | 33.7% | 4.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.09 | 29.3% | 30.1% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.21 | 41.0% | 36.3% | -4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.21 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Zaragoza
Probability
36.3%
Model confidence
36.3%
Zaragoza has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00