Juvenes / Doganavs
Folgore
COMPLETEDSan-Marino · Campionato · 9/13/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Folgore · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Juvenes / Dogana 1-2 Folgore
Original prediction
Folgore
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.17 | 21.6% | 31.7% | 10.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.61 | 25.0% | 26.3% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 1.69 | 53.4% | 42.0% | -11.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.69 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Folgore
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
Folgore has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60