Juticalpavs
Lobos Upnfm
COMPLETEDHonduras · Liga Nacional · 8/29/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lobos Upnfm · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Juticalpa 1-0 Lobos Upnfm
Original prediction
Lobos Upnfm
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.94 | 30.8% | 35.0% | 4.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 27.4% | 26.7% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.16 | 41.8% | 38.3% | -3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Lobos Upnfm
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
Lobos Upnfm has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00