Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Génesis · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Juticalpa 0-3 Génesis
Original prediction
Génesis
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.73 | 24.2% | 23.0% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 28.0% | 25.8% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 1.89 | 47.8% | 51.2% | 3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.89 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–211%
Predicted outcome
Génesis
Probability
51.2%
Model confidence
51.2%
Génesis has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JuticalpaWLLLL
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
GénesisLDWLW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
JuticalpaGénesis
26.7Attack46.7
20.0Defence66.7
20.0Form46.7
26.7Power53.3
0.89xG1.74