Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Juárez W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Juárez W 5-1 Tijuana W
Original prediction
Juárez W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 8 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.24 | 72.5% | 68.1% | -4.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.23 | 17.2% | 18.7% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 8.77 | 10.3% | 13.3% | 3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.24 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Juárez W
Probability
68.1%
Model confidence
68.1%
Juárez W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Juárez WWWWWW
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Tijuana WLLWLL
GF 4 · GA 14 · avg 0.80/2.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Juárez WTijuana W
37.5Attack45.8
79.2Defence20.8
75.0Form25.0
66.7Power31.1
2.22xG0.81