Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Juárez W · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 3-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Juárez W 1-0 Necaxa W
Original prediction
Juárez W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.03 | 89.7% | 71.7% | -18.0 pts |
| Draw | 12.09 | 7.7% | 16.6% | 9.0 pts |
| Away | 35.13 | 2.6% | 11.7% | 9.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.03 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.3–010%
Predicted outcome
Juárez W
Probability
71.7%
Model confidence
71.7%
Juárez W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Juárez WWWWLL
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Necaxa WLLLLL
GF 3 · GA 20 · avg 0.60/4.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Juárez WNecaxa W
33.3Attack16.7
72.2Defence0.0
66.7Form0.0
60.6Power10.0
2.31xG0.73