Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Grorud · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (11%), 1-1 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Junkeren 1-3 Grorud
Original prediction
Grorud
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 06:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.95 | 18.3% | 16.2% | -2.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.42 | 20.5% | 19.9% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 1.48 | 61.2% | 63.9% | 2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.48 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–211%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Grorud
Probability
63.9%
Model confidence
63.9%
Grorud has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JunkerenWLWWD
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
GrorudWWDWW
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
JunkerenGrorud
46.0Attack60.6
44.4Defence69.7
44.4Form65.2
46.9Power65.6
0.88xG2.02