Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Junior W are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DDLLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Fortaleza are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Fortaleza hold a 5.1-point power-rating edge (36.2 v 41.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 26.5% in the Liga Femenina, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 26% BTTS chance and 16% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
26.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00