Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Karlberg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Järfälla 5-0 Karlberg
Original prediction
Karlberg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.28 | 27.4% | 35.7% | 8.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 24.6% | 26.9% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 1.87 | 48.0% | 37.4% | -10.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Karlberg
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
Karlberg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JärfällaLLLLL
GF 2 · GA 12 · avg 0.40/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
KarlbergWLDLW
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 0/5O2.5 2/5
JärfällaKarlberg
33.3Attack8.3
0.0Defence50.0
0.0Form33.3
15.3Power34.3
1.52xG1.34