Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gnistan · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-2
JäPS are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WLDLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Gnistan are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLDDL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Gnistan hold an 8.9-point power-rating edge (43.6 v 52.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 6.9% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Gnistan holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 85% BTTS chance and 88% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Gnistan
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
6.9%
Gnistan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00