Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jordan W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jordan W 1-2 Armenia W
Original prediction
Jordan W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 8 September 2026 at 09:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.39 | 64.6% | 48.3% | -16.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.43 | 20.3% | 25.9% | 5.6 pts |
| Away | 5.92 | 15.2% | 25.8% | 10.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Jordan W
Probability
48.3%
Model confidence
48.3%
Jordan W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Jordan WWWDDL
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Armenia WLDLLL
GF 1 · GA 15 · avg 0.20/3.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
Jordan WArmenia W
83.3Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
100.0Form50.0
83.3Power50.0
2.17xG1.33