Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Venezuela · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jordan 0-0 Venezuela
Original prediction
Venezuela
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 22 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.96 | 47.0% | 35.4% | -11.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 28.0% | 28.0% | -0.0 pts |
| Away | 3.69 | 25.0% | 36.6% | 11.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.29 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Venezuela
Probability
36.6%
Model confidence
36.6%
Venezuela has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JordanDLLDD
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
VenezuelaDLWLL
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
JordanVenezuela
40.0Attack33.3
26.7Defence66.7
20.0Form33.3
32.1Power45.9
1.16xG1.46