Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jordan · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jordan 1-1 Syria
Original prediction
Jordan
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.51 | 61.0% | 37.9% | -23.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.78 | 24.3% | 25.3% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 6.23 | 14.8% | 36.8% | 22.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.78 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-23.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Jordan
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Jordan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JordanLLDDD
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SyriaLDLLW
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
JordanSyria
54.2Attack46.7
20.8Defence60.0
29.2Form46.7
35.1Power53.0
1.43xG1.99