Jonseredvs
Västra Frölunda
COMPLETEDSweden · Division 2 - Västra Götaland · 10/18/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jonsered · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jonsered 2-3 Västra Frölunda
Original prediction
Jonsered
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 09:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.21 | 40.5% | 43.3% | 2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 24.6% | 21.0% | -3.6 pts |
| Away | 2.57 | 34.9% | 35.7% | 0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Jonsered
Probability
43.3%
Model confidence
43.3%
Jonsered has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80