Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hestrafor · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (8%), 1-2 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jonsered 1-1 Hestrafor
Original prediction
Hestrafor
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 18:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.38 | 37.9% | 38.6% | 0.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.78 | 23.9% | 20.1% | -3.8 pts |
| Away | 2.36 | 38.2% | 41.4% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.78 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–28%
- 2.1–27%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Hestrafor
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
Hestrafor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JonseredLWLWD
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
HestraforLWWWD
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
JonseredHestrafor
57.6Attack71.2
45.5Defence43.9
57.6Form60.6
55.1Power59.3
2.11xG2.21