Jonkopings Sodravs
AFC Malmo
COMPLETEDSweden · Ettan - Södra · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AFC Malmo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jonkopings Sodra 2-1 AFC Malmo
Original prediction
AFC Malmo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.99 | 45.7% | 36.4% | -9.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.5% | 26.2% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.27 | 27.8% | 37.5% | 9.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
AFC Malmo
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
AFC Malmo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20