Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
MVV · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Jong AZ are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWW), averaging 3.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while MVV are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WDLLD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and MVV hold a 56.7-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 80.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.6% in the Eerste Divisie, while MVV holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 55% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
MVV
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
12.6%
MVV has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 17 · GA 5 · avg 3.40/1.00
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80