Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
MVV · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jong AZ 1-2 MVV
Original prediction
MVV
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.78 | 52.1% | 36.5% | -15.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.99 | 23.3% | 24.5% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 3.79 | 24.6% | 39.0% | 14.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.79 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
MVV
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
MVV has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Jong AZLWLWW
GF 17 · GA 8 · avg 3.40/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MVVLWWWD
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Jong AZMVV
66.7Attack66.7
33.3Defence66.7
33.3Form100.0
44.0Power83.3
1.50xG1.97