Jong AZvs
Helmond Sport
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eerste Divisie · 10/23/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jong AZ · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (8%), 2-1 (7%), 3-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jong AZ 5-4 Helmond Sport
Original prediction
Jong AZ
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.85 | 50.0% | 52.8% | 2.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.95 | 23.5% | 22.4% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 3.50 | 26.5% | 24.8% | -1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.85 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–18%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.3–27%
Predicted outcome
Jong AZ
Probability
52.8%
Model confidence
52.8%
Jong AZ has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20