Jong AZvs
FC Volendam
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eerste Divisie · 9/18/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Volendam · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-3 (6%), 1-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jong AZ 4-1 FC Volendam
Original prediction
FC Volendam
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.76 | 33.5% | 36.4% | 2.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.83 | 24.1% | 21.5% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.18 | 42.4% | 42.1% | -0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–36%
- 3.1–26%
Predicted outcome
FC Volendam
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
FC Volendam has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00
GF 14 · GA 7 · avg 2.80/1.40