Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jong AZ · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (8%), 4-1 (7%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jong AZ 0-1 Den Bosch
Original prediction
Jong AZ
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.89 | 49.2% | 59.9% | 10.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.24 | 21.9% | 18.7% | -3.1 pts |
| Away | 3.21 | 28.9% | 21.4% | -7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–18%
- 2.4–17%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Jong AZ
Probability
59.9%
Model confidence
59.9%
Jong AZ has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Jong AZWDLWW
GF 15 · GA 9 · avg 3.00/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Den BoschDLWLL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Jong AZDen Bosch
81.5Attack48.1
37.0Defence33.3
48.1Form29.6
55.1Power38.8
3.50xG1.59