Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Waalwijk · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (8%), 1-2 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jong Ajax 0-2 Waalwijk
Original prediction
Waalwijk
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.22 | 28.8% | 33.9% | 5.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.86 | 24.0% | 22.6% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 1.96 | 47.2% | 43.5% | -3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.96 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–28%
- 2.1–27%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Waalwijk
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
43.5%
Waalwijk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Jong AjaxWDWLL
GF 11 · GA 12 · avg 2.20/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
WaalwijkWDDDD
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
Jong AjaxWaalwijk
66.7Attack66.7
22.2Defence46.7
38.9Form46.7
45.6Power55.4
2.04xG2.29