Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
VVV Venlo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-3 (8%), 1-4 (8%), 1-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jong Ajax 0-3 VVV Venlo
Original prediction
VVV Venlo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.77 | 33.4% | 20.3% | -13.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.98 | 23.3% | 18.0% | -5.3 pts |
| Away | 2.14 | 43.3% | 61.7% | 18.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
18.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–38%
- 2.1–48%
- 3.1–26%
Predicted outcome
VVV Venlo
Probability
61.7%
Model confidence
61.7%
VVV Venlo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Jong AjaxDLLWD
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
VVV VenloWLWWL
GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Jong AjaxVVV Venlo
48.1Attack85.2
18.5Defence48.1
29.6Form66.7
35.0Power66.3
1.50xG3.91