Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Roda · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jong Ajax 0-0 Roda
Original prediction
Roda
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.17 | 29.2% | 25.6% | -3.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.79 | 24.4% | 22.8% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 1.99 | 46.4% | 51.5% | 5.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.79 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Roda
Probability
51.5%
Model confidence
51.5%
Roda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Jong AjaxLLWDW
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
RodaWDDWW
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Jong AjaxRoda
54.2Attack38.9
8.3Defence72.2
29.2Form61.1
33.6Power60.7
1.23xG2.10