Jong Ajaxvs
De Graafschap
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eerste Divisie · 10/19/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jong Ajax · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (8%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jong Ajax 2-1 De Graafschap
Original prediction
Jong Ajax
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.46 | 37.6% | 41.0% | 3.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.02 | 23.0% | 19.9% | -3.1 pts |
| Away | 2.35 | 39.4% | 39.1% | -0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.46 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–18%
- 2.2–28%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Jong Ajax
Probability
41.0%
Model confidence
41.0%
Jong Ajax has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 11 · avg 0.40/2.20
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20