Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tauras · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jonava 2-3 Tauras
Original prediction
Tauras
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.76 | 23.7% | 25.4% | 1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 26.1% | 26.0% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 1.78 | 50.2% | 48.6% | -1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.78 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Tauras
Probability
48.6%
Model confidence
48.6%
Tauras has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JonavaLDWLL
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
TaurasLLDDW
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
JonavaTauras
36.1Attack55.6
58.3Defence59.7
37.5Form55.6
45.6Power57.7
0.91xG1.33