Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
BFA · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Jonava 3-0 BFA
Original prediction
BFA
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.40 | 37.4% | 32.3% | -5.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 26.6% | 25.9% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.48 | 36.0% | 41.7% | 5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
BFA
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
BFA has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JonavaLLLDW
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
BFALLDWW
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
JonavaBFA
35.9Attack51.3
55.1Defence52.6
34.6Form55.1
43.6Power54.0
1.06xG1.32