Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Joinville are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.60 conceded, while São Luiz are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLDLL), averaging 0.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Joinville hold a 3.3-point power-rating edge (54.2 v 50.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 30.2% in the Serie D, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 22% BTTS chance and 13% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
30.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
GF 1 · GA 7 · avg 0.20/1.40