Joinvillevs
Hercílio Luz
COMPLETEDBrazil · Copa Santa Catarina · 9/12/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hercílio Luz · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Joinville 1-3 Hercílio Luz
Original prediction
Hercílio Luz
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.56 | 35.1% | 32.3% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 2.94 | 30.6% | 26.6% | -3.9 pts |
| Away | 2.62 | 34.3% | 41.1% | 6.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.62 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Hercílio Luz
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
41.1%
Hercílio Luz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80