Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Joinville · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Joinville are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded, while CSA are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLDLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Joinville hold a 29.3-point power-rating edge (53.0 v 23.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.4% in the Copa Do Brasil, while Joinville holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 42% BTTS chance and 34% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Joinville
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
14.4%
Joinville has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00