Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Joinville are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Cascavel are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LWDWD), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 54.2 against 52.7. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 54.1% in the Serie D, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 16% BTTS chance and 8% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
54.1%
Model confidence
54.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
GF 3 · GA 1 · avg 0.60/0.20